April 25, 2024
‘Load shedding to cost SA 350 000 jobs’
While the return of load shedding is not unexpected in South Africa (SA), it will significantly impact the country’s economy and will lead directly to further job losses, says professional services firm PwC.
In a recent research note, PwC noted that the power outages are one of several domestic challenges that the SA government will need to address if it hopes to see significant economic growth post-pandemic.
This is despite many international and external factors, which would otherwise bolster growth, it said.
“A key element in the economic outlook for Q4 2021 is the return of load shedding. After 11 weeks without power outages, SA was again hit with load-shedding during the second week of October.
“Unexpected power station breakdowns, delays in returning to service some other units under maintenance, and the quicker-than-expected depletion of emergency systems resulted in nearly 15 000 MW of capacity being out of action — that was nearly half of the power utility’s coal-powered fleet.”
PwC said that its baseline scenario has for some time assumed that power cuts would be back during the fourth quarter. Despite this, the group still expects heavy jobs losses to occur due to the power outages.
“Overall, we expect load-shedding to reduce 2021 GDP growth by three percentage points – and cost the country 350 000 in potential jobs,” it said.
Energy Thought Leader chief executive (CE) Mike Rossouw, has described Eskom’s predicament as dire, which he said, has pushed South Africa beyond the tipping point.
“Eskom is near total collapse,” Rossouw said during a recent interview on radio station 702.
Rossouw is the former chair of the Energy Intensive Users Group and was brought on as an advisor at Eskom in 2014, answering directly to former CE Collin Matjila.
“I don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel. In fact, I see a big train coming down the tunnel at us,” Rossouw said.
“We’re going to see a lot more load-shedding and for much longer.”
He said that once Eskom reaches the point of collapse, everything will crumble with it — “Services, everything,” he said. The energy expert said the rate at which power plants are breaking down is profoundly concerning.
